The first
image (left) is the latest data (the symbols) and the
predictions for the future (lines), along with
a close-up of the data (right). Due
to the nature of social interactions and the mean
incubation time of sars-cov-2, predictions beyond
a week in advance are necessarily
less-accurate.
For now, cases plots are not being done.
Close-up data are no longer being shown.
In the 3rd row are videos
of how exponential data evolve - and how to read these
semi-logarithmic
plots.
(With each data set, it is
the lines which extend to the right-side of the
plot which are the predictions.)
Observations:
-
AZ deaths
are 3x larger than WA deaths, and are increasing
nearly 2x as fast.
-
U.S. deaths will pass 600,000 by
mid-March 2021.
- The
pandemic is still spreading
exponentially
as of Feb 7, 2021 - but at a new,
higher death rate which began late
November.
The new increased death rate
is 2x - 4x larger than the summer
2020 rate, depending on the state
(AZ is the worst).
- Blue Dashed Oval: evidence
of a slight decrease in deaths rate
in the last week or two...
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At this point in the U.S. pandemic,
covid-19 new cases
and deaths
are still
growing exponentially.
Wikipedia:
Exponential Growth Wikipedia:
Log-Linear Plotting of Exponential Functions
Wikipedia:
Math. Modeling of Infectious Diseases
Wikipedia:
US Coronavirus Epidemic Wikipedia:
Correlation Coefficient in Regressions
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
Covid-19
Pandemic is part of the Limits-To-Growth.
Video:
How to read the logarithmic vertical axis in these
plots...
The
Columbia School of Law Tracks the Silencing of
Modern Science by the U.S. Government.
https://climate.law.columbia.edu/Silencing-Science-Tracker
Note that increased testing (in a state where testing has been
relatively unavailable) will result in increasing
confirmed cases in that state - and the
result is more accurate.
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